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Cable reference id: #09MEXICO212

“All of them, those in power, and those who want the power, would pamper us, if we agreed to overlook their crookedness by wilfully restricting our activities.” — “Refus Global“, Paul-Émile Borduas

Hide header C O N F I D E N T I A L MEXICO 000212 E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/21/2017 TAGS: PGOV [Internal Governmental Affairs], PREL [External Political Relations], PINR [Intelligence], MX [Mexico] SUBJECT: MEXICO'S PRI JOCKEYS FOR JULY VOTE WITH AN EYE TOWARD 2012 Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Charles V. Barclay. Reason: 1.4 (b), (d). ¶1. (C) Summary. The Revolutionary Institutional Party (PRI) is confident six months out from the vote that it stands to make significant gains in July's federal legislative and gubernatorial elections, even as PRI luminaries approach the electoral contest with an eye toward the next presidential bid. Most observers see party president Beatriz Paredes, Mexico State Governor Enrique Pena Nieto, and PRI Senate leader Manlio Fabio Beltrones as the three most likely presidential candidates, with Pena Nieto needing to prove that his personal popularity can translate into stronger electoral results and support for the PRI. The party is already increasing its attacks on the Calderon government and his National Action Party (PAN). Regardless of the electoral outcome, it is almost certain that from here on out, PRI's policymaking and campaigning will be primarily geared toward recapturing the Mexican presidency. End Summary. State of Play ------------- ¶2. (C) The PRI continues to be confident that it stands to make significant gains in July's federal legislative and gubernatorial elections. Some analysts suggest that, while less likely, with enough victories in the winner-take-all votes, the PRI could be granted an absolute majority through the distribution of proportional representation seats. Director General of the Chamber of Deputies' Center for Social Studies and Public Opinion (CESOP) and former advisor to PRI Senate leadership, Carlos Casillas, told Poloff on January 15 that the PRI is probably most likely to win about 215 seats, and Luis Rubio from the Center of Investigation for the Development of Mexico (CIDAC) agreed that the PRI is virtually guaranteed at least 210 seats. Rubio also noted that while he sees PRI as unlikely to win an absolute majority, it is not completely out of the question since the party would have to win only 42% of the vote--with alliances--in order to be allotted enough proportional representation slots to push them over 250 seats. (Note: The PRI currently has 106 seats in the Chamber, while the PAN has 207 and the PRD has 127. End Note.) ¶3. (C) PRI also hopes to make gains in the gubernatorial races. PRI Director for International Relations Ceslo Delgado told Poloff on January 20 that of the six governorships up for grabs, the party hopes to maintain its grip on Sonora, Campeche, Colima and Nuevo Leon, while perhaps picking up Queretero or, less likely, San Luis Potosi. Both Queretero and San Luis Potosi are considered PAN states--Queretero has been governed by the PAN since 1997 and the party has prospered in San Luis Potosi under PAN Governor Jesus Marcelo de los Santos--but corruption scandals plaguing the current Queretero governor and PAN infighting in San Luis Potosi could open the door to a PRI challenger, according to Casillas and other local observers. ¶4. (C) Analysts have pointed to the PAN and PRD as being slow off the mark in preparing for the July elections. Luis Rubio opined that President Calderon seems to be doing little to directly organize the PAN's electoral effort. Splits within the party between ideological and pragmatic factions also are paralyzing the party, and PAN leadership has yet to prove that it is developing a coherent campaign strategy for the 40 to 50 swing districts it has to win in order to obtain the 168 seats it needs to be able to check the PRI in congress. The bitterly fought internal power struggles within the PRD will almost certainly prevent the party from effectively campaigning in the runup to the elections, and the still unresolved issue of 2006 presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador's place in the party is alienating potential voters. Rubio opined that the PRD may only be able to secure between 80-85 districts. The PRD is also a virtual non-factor in the gubernatorial elections, which will turn into two-way races as the PAN and PRI battle for the posts. Internal PRI Positioning ------------------------ ¶5. (C) Some PRI heavyweights are eyeing the 2009 electoral season with the next presidential election in mind, and potential candidates are already looking to position themselves to advantage in 2012. Most observers see party president Beatriz Paredes, Mexico State Governor Enrique Pena Nieto, and PRI Senate leader Manlio Fabio Beltrones as the three most likely presidential candidates, with PRI Chamber of Deputies Coordinator Emilio Gamboa and several state governors (including the Governors of Veracruz and Sonora) also harboring their own hopes. Casillas and PRI-affiliated analyst Jose Alcalde both noted that Paredes is likely to take one of the plurinominal federal deputy seats, but Casillas reported that she may reconsider. Paredes almost certainly would only be willing to be a deputy if she were guaranteed to lead the PRI congressional bloc, which would require that she relinquish the party presidency. If she were to resign, the party's Secretary General and close ally to Pena Nieto, Jesus Murillo Karam would assume the presidency, thus strengthening the Mexico State Governor's position. Nevertheless, even if Paredes chooses to serve out her term as president, her allies almost certainly will fill the majority of seats allocated to the party by proportional representation, and she will thus manage the most powerful PRI deputies in congress. ¶6. (C) Beltrones and Gamboa are also probably trying to strengthen their positions by influencing the candidate selection process, with a likely focus on the gubernatorial races given the power PRI governors still have in managing party affairs in their states. Party insiders suggest that Beltrones, for example, is attempting to see his ally be named as the gubernatorial candidate in Sonora. Gamboa and other party leaders publicly backed pre-candidate for the San Luis Potosi governorship, Jesus Ramirez Strobos, in the primary race against winner Fernando Toranzo Fernandez, rumored to be Paredes' pick. Analysts suggest that internal bickering over candidate selection will continue to be fraught until the candidate selection process concludes. Big Year for Pena Nieto ----------------------- ¶7. (C) PRI is looking to Pena Nieto to prove in this year's elections that his personal popularity can translate into stronger electoral results and support for the PRI in Mexico State. Carlos Flores Rico, currently the Director General for the party's "Territorial Movement," told Poloff in December that the party has not fared particularly well under Pena Nieto in Mexico State, and most analysts suggest that the PRI's prospects remain at best uncertain in July's vote. CESOP is projecting PAN to win some 11 seats in the state, with PRI ending up with 13 and the PRD with 16. This would be an increase from PRI's current 7 directly elected deputies (PAN having 11, PRD 20, and Convergencia 2), but perhaps not the dramatic increase party luminaries would need to see in order to be convinced that public support for Pena Nieto can be chalked up to more than attraction to his charisma and youth. Perhaps unlike in previous electoral contests, Pena Nieto is focused on the July elections--he has launched significant public works projects in areas targeted for votes, and analysts and PRI party leaders alike have repeatedly expressed to Poloff their belief that he is paying media outlets under the table for favorable news coverage, as well as potentially financing pollsters to sway survey results. Campaign Heating Up ------------------- ¶8. (C) PRI is focusing its campaign by attacking the PAN and President Calderon on economic, security, and corruption matters, while hoping to win support from disaffected PRD voters by appealing to their "social democratic" sensibilities. Delgado told Poloff that PRI will focus negative campaigning on the PAN's neglect of the agricultural sector, deteriorating economic conditions, and that the PAN is "no less corrupt than the PRI was." Local press is already honing in on what seems to be an increasingly acrimonious relationship between the PRI and PAN as Paredes and PAN Senator Santiago Creel have traded barbs over the past week on issues ranging from candidate selection mechanisms to governance and progress on reforms. ¶9. (C) PRI's criticisms of its rival may have some legs--PAN Secretary for International Relations Juan Bosco Tinoco told PolCouns on January 23 that he is very concerned that Mexicans may be increasingly receptive to opposition attempts to blame President Calderon for worsening economic conditions, which may strengthen PRI prospects. Bosco noted that recent focus groups conducted by the party indicate that people are becoming more frustrated that the Calderon administration has not done more mitigate the local effects of the worldwide economic downturn, whereas focus groups last fall indicated that people understood the problem to be a global phenomenon rather than the result of mismanagement from the government. Most analysts predict a more acrimonious legislative session when it starts next month, and some suggest that PRI may secure significant compromises from the PAN on proposed laws such as police reorganization. Comment ------- ¶10. (C) The electoral landscape could change dramatically in the months of campaigning that lie ahead--for example, internal PRI politicking as potential presidential candidates seek to best position themselves for a 2012 bid could sow divisions during the candidate selection process for the legislative and gubernatorial contests. Real divisiveness within the party probably will be held at bay through the July elections, however, even as rifts exist that could serve to once again rend the party as the presidential contest nears. ¶11. (C) Analysts have suggested that the PRI, particularly if it were to secure a majority, will approach the next legislature aggressively and in pure campaign mode. Observers note that PRI probably would seek to pass laws recentralizing authority with an eye toward winning the presidency in 2012, looking, for example, to impose more controls on the private sector, changes to budget procedures, funneling greater resources to the agricultural sector, and imposing more controls over PEMEX. It is almost certain that between now and the end of the current Sexenio, PRI's policymaking and campaigning will be almost exclusively guided by the goal of re-capturing the Mexican presidency and the internal power struggles that accompany such a bid. Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity and the North American Partnership Blog at http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/nap / BASSETT